Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Feb 2 · 19:00 · Jong Ajax vs Willem II
Likeliest: Jong Ajax win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 24%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong Ajax40%24%+16
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Willem II35%53%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 64% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 47% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 76% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 32% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong Ajax
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Jan 19 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)2-2
- Jan 12 · at Jong AZ (A)2-1
- Dec 22 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)0-2
- Dec 12 · at MVV Maastricht (A)1-2
- Dec 5 · at Almere City (A)2-3
Willem II
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Jan 23 · v VVV-Venlo (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at FC Eindhoven (A)2-0
- Dec 21 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-2
- Dec 18 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-5
- Dec 12 · v SC Cambuur (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Jong Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.