Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · Jong AZ Alkmaar vs FC Den Bosch
Likeliest: Jong AZ Alkmaar win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong AZ Alkmaar51%50%0
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
FC Den Bosch28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 72% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong AZ Alkmaar
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 18 · v FC Volendam (H)4-1
- Sep 14 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · at FC Dordrecht (A)6-3
- Aug 31 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-1
FC Den Bosch
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 3 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at De Graafschap (A)0-1
- Sep 18 · v Helmond Sport (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at FC Volendam (A)0-2
- Sep 7 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Jong AZ Alkmaar | FC Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.