Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:00 · Jong AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam
Likeliest: FC Volendam win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong AZ Alkmaar34%35%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Volendam42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong AZ Alkmaar
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 14 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · at FC Dordrecht (A)6-3
- Aug 31 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · v MVV Maastricht (H)1-2
FC Volendam
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 13 · v FC Den Bosch (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FC Emmen (A)3-5
- Aug 28 · v FC Dordrecht (H)6-1
- Aug 21 · at MVV Maastricht (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · v TOP Oss (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Jong AZ Alkmaar | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.