Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Helmond Sport
Likeliest: Jong AZ Alkmaar win · 60%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong AZ Alkmaar60%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Helmond Sport20%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong AZ Alkmaar
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 16 · at VVV-Venlo (A)4-4
- Oct 9 · v FC Den Bosch (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · v FC Volendam (H)4-1
- Sep 14 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-3
Helmond Sport
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 16 · v NAC Breda (H)0-2
- Oct 9 · at TOP Oss (A)1-3
- Oct 2 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at MVV Maastricht (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Jong AZ Alkmaar | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-3 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.