Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Feb 16 · 19:00 · Jong FC Utrecht vs Willem II
Likeliest: Jong FC Utrecht win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 39%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong FC Utrecht51%39%+12
OursMarket
Draw21%24%−2
OursMarket
Willem II28%37%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 63% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 61% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 52% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong FC Utrecht
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Feb 2 · v VVV-Venlo (H)2-2
- Jan 26 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)2-2
- Jan 23 · at MVV Maastricht (A)2-2
- Jan 19 · v Jong PSV (H)5-3
- Dec 22 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)1-3
Willem II
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Feb 8 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-1
- Feb 2 · at Jong Ajax (A)1-2
- Jan 23 · v VVV-Venlo (H)2-1
- Jan 18 · at FC Eindhoven (A)2-0
- Dec 21 · at Helmond Sport (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Jong FC Utrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.