Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Aug 24 · 18:00 · Jong FC Utrecht Youth vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Jong FC Utrecht Youth win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 20%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong FC Utrecht Youth59%20%+39
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo20%59%−38
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 41% | +38 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 80% | −39 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 25% | +49 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong FC Utrecht Youth
LossLoss
- Aug 17 · v Vitesse (H)1-3
- Aug 9 · at MVV Maastricht (A)1-2
Heracles Almelo
LossLossLossWinWin
- Aug 14 · v FC Den Bosch (H)3-2
- Aug 7 · at VVV-Venlo (A)4-3
- May 17 · v FC Groningen (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Telstar (A)0-3
- May 3 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Jong FC Utrecht Youth | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 70% |
| Both teams scored | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.