Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Oct 19 · 18:00 · Jong FC Utrecht Youth vs Roda JC Kerkrade
Likeliest: Roda JC Kerkrade win · 52%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong FC Utrecht Youth22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Roda JC Kerkrade52%49%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 34% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong FC Utrecht Youth
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 9 · at De Graafschap (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v VVV-Venlo (H)1-3
- Sep 14 · v Jong Ajax (H)6-1
- Sep 11 · at NAC Breda (A)3-2
- Sep 7 · v FC Eindhoven (H)0-0
Roda JC Kerkrade
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 9 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · at VVV-Venlo (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Jong Ajax (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Vitesse (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Jong FC Utrecht Youth | Roda JC Kerkrade |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.