Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Jong KRC Genk U23 vs RFC Seraing
Likeliest: Jong KRC Genk U23 win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong KRC Genk U2338%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
RFC Seraing35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong KRC Genk U23
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Royal Excelsior Virton (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt (H)3-0
- Aug 28 · at KSC Lokeren-Temse (A)4-2
- Aug 23 · v RFC Liège (H)2-3
- Aug 15 · at KAS Eupen (A)1-4
RFC Seraing
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt (H)1-2
- Sep 4 · at FCV Dender (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Club NXT U23 (A)2-3
- Aug 14 · v KSC Lokeren-Temse (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Jong KRC Genk U23 | RFC Seraing |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.