Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Mon, Oct 19 · 18:00 · Jong PSV Eindhoven vs FC Dordrecht
Likeliest: Jong PSV Eindhoven win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jong PSV Eindhoven43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
FC Dordrecht33%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jong PSV Eindhoven
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 9 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Vitesse (A)1-3
- Sep 14 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v FC Den Bosch (H)3-1
FC Dordrecht
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · v FC Emmen (H)0-3
- Oct 3 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Sep 25 · v Almere City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at TOP Oss (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · at FC Eindhoven (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Jong PSV Eindhoven | FC Dordrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.