Friendly International (World) · Tue, Oct 6 · 17:00 · Jordan vs Venezuela
Likeliest: Venezuela win · 39%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jordan31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
Venezuela39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jordan
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 27 · v Syria (H)1-1
- Jun 28 · v Argentina (H)1-3
- Jun 23 · v Algeria (H)1-2
- Jun 17 · at Austria (A)1-3
- Jun 7 · at Colombia (A)0-2
Venezuela
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 2 · at South Korea (A)0-0
- Sep 28 · at Japan (A)1-2
- Jun 10 · at Iraq (A)2-0
- Jun 6 · v Turkey (H)1-2
- Jun 6 · v Türkiye (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Jordan | Venezuela |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.