J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 09:00 · Jubilo Iwata vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Likeliest: Jubilo Iwata win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jubilo Iwata55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jubilo Iwata
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 4 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-0
- Sep 6 · v Kataller Toyama (H)0-1
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 4 · v Iwaki FC (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Oita Trinita (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Tochigi City FC (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Jubilo Iwata | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 0-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.