J2 League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Jubilo Iwata vs Oita Trinita
Likeliest: Jubilo Iwata win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Jubilo Iwata50%51%0
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Oita Trinita20%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Jubilo Iwata
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (H)1-0
- Oct 4 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Albirex Niigata (A)1-2
Oita Trinita
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Albirex Niigata (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at Yokohama FC (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Montedio Yamagata (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Jubilo Iwata | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 1-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.