Primera A (Colombia) · Wed, Oct 14 · 21:30 · Junior Barranquilla vs Deportivo Pereira
Likeliest: Junior Barranquilla win · 71%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Junior Barranquilla71%75%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%17%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo Pereira10%8%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 46% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 92% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 25% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 83% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 90% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Junior Barranquilla
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)2-2
- Oct 4 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)1-3
- Oct 1 · at Atlético Nacional (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · v Independiente Medellín (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Fortaleza CEIF (A)4-1
Deportivo Pereira
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Deportivo Cali (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)0-4
- Sep 29 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Rionegro Águilas Doradas (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Junior Barranquilla | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-1 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.