Primera A (Colombia) · Sat, Oct 10 · 23:10 · Junior Barranquilla vs Internacional de Bogotá
Likeliest: Junior Barranquilla win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Junior Barranquilla56%57%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Internacional de Bogotá19%19%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 81% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 43% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Junior Barranquilla
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 4 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)1-3
- Oct 1 · at Atlético Nacional (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · v Independiente Medellín (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Fortaleza CEIF (A)4-1
- Sep 13 · at Alianza Valledupar FC (A)0-1
Internacional de Bogotá
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 4 · v Once Caldas (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)0-2
- Sep 17 · v Atlético Nacional (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · v Llaneros FC (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Junior Barranquilla | Internacional de Bogotá |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-7-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | 0-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.