Primera A (Colombia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 01:10 · Junior Barranquilla vs Rionegro Águilas Doradas
Likeliest: Junior Barranquilla win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Junior Barranquilla55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Rionegro Águilas Doradas19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Junior Barranquilla
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 19 · at Deportivo Cali (A)0-0
- Oct 14 · v Deportivo Pereira (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)2-2
- Oct 4 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)1-3
- Oct 1 · at Atlético Nacional (A)1-3
Rionegro Águilas Doradas
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Deportes Tolima (H)2-1
- Oct 13 · at Atlético Bucaramanga (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Alianza Valledupar FC (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Jaguares de Córdoba (H)2-0
- Sep 28 · at Deportivo Cali (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Junior Barranquilla | Rionegro Águilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-1 | 1-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.