Serie B (Italy) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:30 · Juve Stabia vs Cesena
Likeliest: Juve Stabia win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juve Stabia39%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%29%+1
OursMarket
Cesena31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juve Stabia
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at L.R. Vicenza (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Pisa (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Sampdoria (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Palermo (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Frosinone (A)1-4
Cesena
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · v Cremonese (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Mantova (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Virtus Entella (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Sampdoria (H)1-1
- Aug 17 · at Sassuolo (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Juve Stabia | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.