Serie B (Italy) · Fri, May 1 · 13:00 · Juve Stabia vs Frosinone
Likeliest: Frosinone win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 29%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juve Stabia37%29%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−2
OursMarket
Frosinone37%44%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 40% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juve Stabia
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Apr 25 · at Pescara (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Catanzaro (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Cesena (H)2-0
- Apr 6 · at Venezia (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Spezia (H)3-1
Frosinone
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 25 · v Carrarese (H)3-0
- Apr 18 · at Modena (A)2-1
- Apr 10 · v Palermo (H)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Calcio Padova (H)2-0
- Mar 22 · at Südtirol (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Juve Stabia | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.