Serie B (Italy) · Sat, May 16 · 18:00 · Juve Stabia vs Monza
Likeliest: Juve Stabia win · 48%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juve Stabia48%25%+24
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Monza28%49%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 51% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 75% | −24 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 34% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juve Stabia
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- May 12 · at Modena (A)1-0
- May 8 · at Südtirol (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Frosinone (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Pescara (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Catanzaro (H)1-1
Monza
WinWinWinLossDraw
- May 8 · v Empoli (H)2-2
- May 1 · at Mantova (A)2-3
- Apr 24 · v Modena (H)1-0
- Apr 17 · at Sampdoria (A)3-0
- Apr 11 · v Bari 1908 (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Juve Stabia | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.