Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Sep 6 · 13:00 · Juve Stabia vs Pisa
Likeliest: Juve Stabia win · 66%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juve Stabia66%33%+34
OursMarket
Draw19%31%−12
OursMarket
Pisa15%36%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 64% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 67% | −34 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 69% | +12 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 47% | +34 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juve Stabia
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Aug 29 · at Sampdoria (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Palermo (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Frosinone (A)1-4
- May 19 · at Monza (A)1-2
- May 16 · v Monza (H)2-2
Pisa
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Aug 30 · v Catanzaro (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Padova (H)0-1
- Aug 17 · v Empoli (H)1-1
- May 23 · at Lazio (A)1-2
- May 17 · v Napoli (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Juve Stabia | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.