Serie B (Italy) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Juve Stabia vs Südtirol
Likeliest: Juve Stabia win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juve Stabia41%44%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%28%+3
OursMarket
Südtirol28%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juve Stabia
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Virtus Entella (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Cesena (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at L.R. Vicenza (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Pisa (H)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Sampdoria (A)2-1
Südtirol
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Ascoli (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Arezzo (A)4-1
- Sep 15 · at Genoa (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Modena (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Catanzaro (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Juve Stabia | Südtirol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.