Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:00 · Juventud de Las Piedras vs Peñarol
Likeliest: Peñarol win · 50%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventud de Las Piedras20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Peñarol50%48%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 34% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventud de Las Piedras
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Progreso (A)0-2
- Oct 11 · v Racing de Montevideo (H)2-0
- Oct 4 · at Boston River (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Cerro (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Albion FC (A)3-1
Peñarol
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Liverpool UY (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Progreso (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · at Racing de Montevideo (A)1-0
- Sep 30 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Boston River (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Juventud de Las Piedras | Peñarol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.