Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 11 · 14:00 · Juventud de Las Piedras vs Racing de Montevideo
Likeliest: Racing de Montevideo win · 35%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventud de Las Piedras33%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Racing de Montevideo35%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventud de Las Piedras
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 4 · at Boston River (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Cerro (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Albion FC (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Danubio (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Nacional (A)2-2
Racing de Montevideo
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 4 · v Peñarol (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Progreso (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Liverpool UY (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Boston River (H)3-2
- Sep 6 · at Cerro (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Juventud de Las Piedras | Racing de Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 0-6-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.