Serie B (Brazil) · Sun, Sep 13 · 21:00 · Juventude vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Juventude win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventude55%55%0
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Athletic Club16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 42% | 41% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventude
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 9 · at Criciúma (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Atlético Goianiense (H)2-2
- Sep 1 · at Londrina (A)0-0
- Aug 25 · v CRB (H)2-1
- Aug 19 · at Goiás (A)1-0
Athletic Club
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 12 · v Elche (H)1-1
- Sep 8 · at Cuiabá (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Atletico Madrid (H)3-0
- Sep 4 · v Vila Nova FC (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Juventude | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.