Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Tue, Aug 4 · 22:30 · Juventude vs Atlético Mineiro
Likeliest: Juventude win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 30%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventude42%30%+11
OursMarket
Draw28%28%0
OursMarket
Atlético Mineiro30%41%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 70% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 42% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventude
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 1 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)0-0
- Jul 28 · v Avaí (H)1-0
- Jul 24 · at Botafogo-SP (A)2-4
- Jul 17 · v Cuiabá (H)2-0
- Jul 10 · v Vila Nova FC (H)1-0
Atlético Mineiro
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 1 · v Juventude (H)0-0
- Jul 26 · at Palmeiras (A)2-1
- Jul 21 · v Bahia (H)1-1
- May 31 · at Vasco da Gama (A)1-0
- May 27 · v Academia Puerto Cabello (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Juventude | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 90% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.