Serie B (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 11 · 19:00 · Juventude vs São Bernardo
Likeliest: Juventude win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventude57%56%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
São Bernardo16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 43% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventude
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 7 · at Ponte Preta (A)2-0
- Oct 2 · v Operário-PR (H)3-0
- Sep 28 · at América Mineiro (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Sport Recife (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Athletic Club (H)0-2
São Bernardo
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 6 · at Sport Recife (A)1-2
- Oct 2 · v CRB (H)3-1
- Sep 25 · at Novorizontino (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Atlético Goianiense (H)1-0
- Sep 14 · at América Mineiro (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Juventude | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.