Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Sep 6 · 18:45 · Juventus vs AC Milan
Likeliest: Juventus win · 55%
A 55% home win. The market says 46%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus55%46%+9
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
AC Milan22%25%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 51% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 54% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 64% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 29 · v Parma (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Frosinone (A)1-0
- May 24 · at Torino (A)2-2
- May 17 · v Fiorentina (H)0-2
- May 9 · at Lecce (A)1-0
AC Milan
LossWinLossWinWin
- Aug 28 · v Venezia (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Torino (A)2-1
- May 24 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Genoa (A)2-1
- May 10 · v Atalanta (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Juventus | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.