Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Sep 20 · 16:00 · Juventus vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Juventus win · 57%
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Atalanta18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at Sassuolo (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · v AC Milan (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Parma (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Frosinone (A)1-0
Atalanta
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Roma (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v Bologna (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Hapoel Tel Aviv (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.