UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Sep 22 · 19:00 · Juventus vs Benfica
Likeliest: Benfica win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 22%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus37%55%−18
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+2
OursMarket
Benfica39%22%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 58% | +11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 56% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 78% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 45% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 71% | −22 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 2 · v SKN St. Pölten (H)1-1
- Aug 26 · at SKN St. Pölten (A)3-0
- Aug 8 · v Hammarby (H)1-1
- Aug 5 · v SCU Torreense (H)2-1
Benfica
No recent results tracked.