Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 19 · 18:45 · Juventus vs Bologna
Likeliest: Juventus win · 55%
A 22% away win. The market says 14%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus55%65%−10
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Bologna22%14%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 55% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 86% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 35% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 82% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 11 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Genoa (H)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Sassuolo (H)1-1
- Mar 14 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- Mar 7 · v Pisa (H)4-0
Bologna
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 16 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
- Apr 12 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Apr 9 · v Aston Villa (H)1-3
- Apr 5 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Lazio (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.