Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Nov 29 · 17:00 · Juventus vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Juventus win · 63%
A 18% away win. The market says 9%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus63%73%−11
OursMarket
Draw19%17%+2
OursMarket
Cagliari18%9%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 91% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 27% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 83% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 89% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Nov 25 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)3-2
- Nov 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v Torino (H)0-0
- Nov 4 · v Sporting CP (H)1-1
- Nov 1 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
Cagliari
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Nov 22 · v Genoa (H)3-3
- Nov 8 · at Como (A)0-0
- Nov 3 · at Lazio (A)0-2
- Oct 30 · v Sassuolo (H)1-2
- Oct 26 · at Hellas Verona (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.