Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 21 · 14:00 · Juventus vs Como
Likeliest: Juventus win · 44%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus44%21%+23
OursMarket
Draw25%41%−16
OursMarket
Como31%39%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 61% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 79% | −23 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 59% | +16 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 35% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Feb 17 · at Galatasaray (A)2-5
- Feb 14 · at Inter (A)2-3
- Feb 8 · v Lazio (H)2-2
- Feb 5 · at Atalanta (A)0-3
- Feb 1 · at Parma (A)4-1
Como
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Feb 18 · at AC Milan (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Fiorentina (H)1-2
- Feb 10 · at Napoli (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · v Atalanta (H)0-0
- Jan 27 · at Fiorentina (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.