Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 17 · 10:30 · Juventus vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Juventus win · 61%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus61%71%−10
OursMarket
Draw22%18%+4
OursMarket
Fiorentina18%11%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 59% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 89% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 29% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 86% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- May 9 · at Lecce (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at AC Milan (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v Bologna (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
Fiorentina
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- May 10 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- May 4 · at Roma (A)0-4
- Apr 26 · v Sassuolo (H)0-0
- Apr 20 · at Lecce (A)1-1
- Apr 16 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.