Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 3 · 16:00 · Juventus vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Juventus win · 70%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus70%80%−9
OursMarket
Draw19%14%+5
OursMarket
Hellas Verona11%7%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 59% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 40% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 93% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 20% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 92% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 26 · at AC Milan (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v Bologna (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · v Genoa (H)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Sassuolo (H)1-1
Hellas Verona
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Apr 25 · v Lecce (H)0-0
- Apr 19 · v AC Milan (H)0-1
- Apr 11 · at Torino (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Fiorentina (H)0-1
- Mar 22 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.