Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 8 · 19:45 · Juventus vs Lazio
Likeliest: Juventus win · 53%
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 41%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus53%66%−13
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Lazio20%12%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 45% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 41% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 88% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 34% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 85% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Feb 5 · at Atalanta (A)0-3
- Feb 1 · at Parma (A)4-1
- Jan 28 · at Monaco (A)0-0
- Jan 25 · v Napoli (H)3-0
- Jan 21 · v Benfica (H)2-0
Lazio
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Jan 30 · v Genoa (H)3-2
- Jan 24 · at Lecce (A)0-0
- Jan 19 · v Como (H)0-3
- Jan 11 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- Jan 7 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.