Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 3 · 17:00 · Juventus vs Lecce
Likeliest: Juventus win · 67%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus67%75%−8
OursMarket
Draw21%17%+4
OursMarket
Lecce12%8%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 51% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 37% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 92% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 25% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 83% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 91% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
LossWinWinWinWin
- Dec 27 · at Pisa (A)2-0
- Dec 20 · v Roma (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at Bologna (A)1-0
- Dec 10 · v Pafos FC (H)2-0
- Dec 7 · at Napoli (A)1-2
Lecce
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Dec 27 · v Como (H)0-3
- Dec 12 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Dec 7 · at Cremonese (A)0-2
- Nov 30 · v Torino (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Lazio (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.