Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 25 · 17:00 · Juventus vs Napoli
Likeliest: Juventus win · 48%
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus48%46%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Napoli26%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 36% | +20 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 44% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 66% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Jan 21 · v Benfica (H)2-0
- Jan 17 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Jan 12 · v Cremonese (H)5-0
- Jan 6 · at Sassuolo (A)3-0
- Jan 3 · v Lecce (H)1-1
Napoli
DrawDrawDrawWinDraw
- Jan 20 · at FC København (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Sassuolo (H)1-0
- Jan 14 · v Parma (H)0-0
- Jan 11 · at Inter (A)2-2
- Jan 7 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.