Serie A Femminile (Italy) · Sat, Sep 26 · 10:30 · Juventus vs Napoli
Likeliest: Juventus win · 49%
A 25% away win. The market says 13%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus49%69%−21
OursMarket
Draw26%18%+8
OursMarket
Napoli25%13%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 87% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 31% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 82% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 85% | −19 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · v Atalanta (H)2-0
- Sep 17 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)5-0
- Sep 13 · at Sassuolo (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · v AC Milan (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Parma (H)2-0
Napoli
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Bologna (H)1-0
- Sep 9 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Inter Milan (A)2-3
- Aug 30 · v Como (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.