Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 17 · 19:00 · Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: Juventus win · 79%
A tight one: we make it 79% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus79%77%+2
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen8%8%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 65% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 92% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 23% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 90% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · at Sassuolo (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · v AC Milan (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Parma (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Frosinone (A)1-0
- May 24 · at Torino (A)2-2
NEC Nijmegen
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at SC Cambuur (A)0-3
- Sep 8 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Feyenoord (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at PEC Zwolle (A)3-1
- Aug 25 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Juventus | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.