Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Aug 29 · 18:45 · Juventus vs Parma
Likeliest: Juventus win · 59%
A 25% draw. The market says 14%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus59%79%−20
OursMarket
Draw25%14%+11
OursMarket
Parma16%7%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 58% | −26 |
| Both teams score | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 93% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 21% | +20 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 86% | −11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 92% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Aug 23 · at Frosinone (A)1-0
- May 24 · at Torino (A)2-2
- May 17 · v Fiorentina (H)0-2
- May 9 · at Lecce (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-1
Parma
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 22 · v Cagliari (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · v Catania (H)2-0
- May 24 · v Sassuolo (H)1-0
- May 17 · at Como (A)0-1
- May 10 · v Roma (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.