Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 20 · 19:45 · Juventus vs Roma
Likeliest: Juventus win · 38%
A 33% away win. The market says 23%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus38%47%−9
OursMarket
Draw29%30%−1
OursMarket
Roma33%23%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 77% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 53% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 67% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 14 · at Bologna (A)1-0
- Dec 10 · v Pafos FC (H)2-0
- Dec 7 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Dec 2 · v Udinese (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
Roma
WinLossLossWinWin
- Dec 15 · v Como (H)1-0
- Dec 11 · at Celtic (A)3-0
- Dec 7 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
- Nov 30 · v Napoli (H)0-1
- Nov 27 · v FC Midtjylland (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.