Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Mar 21 · 19:45 · Juventus vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Juventus win · 50%
A 26% away win. The market says 10%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus50%73%−23
OursMarket
Draw24%17%+7
OursMarket
Sassuolo26%10%+16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 49% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 90% | −16 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 27% | +23 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 83% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 88% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 14 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- Mar 7 · v Pisa (H)4-0
- Mar 1 · at Roma (A)3-3
- Feb 25 · v Galatasaray (H)3-2
- Feb 21 · v Como (H)0-2
Sassuolo
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Mar 15 · v Bologna (H)0-1
- Mar 9 · at Lazio (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Atalanta (H)2-1
- Feb 20 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Udinese (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.