Coppa Italia (Italy) · Tue, Dec 2 · 20:00 · Juventus vs Udinese
Likeliest: Juventus win · 71%
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Juventus71%69%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Udinese10%11%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 89% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 31% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 86% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Juventus
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Nov 29 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Nov 25 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)3-2
- Nov 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v Torino (H)0-0
- Nov 4 · v Sporting CP (H)1-1
Udinese
LossWinLossLossWin
- Nov 29 · at Parma (A)2-0
- Nov 22 · v Bologna (H)0-3
- Nov 9 · at Roma (A)0-2
- Nov 1 · v Atalanta (H)1-0
- Oct 29 · at Juventus (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Juventus | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.