Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:00 · K. Beerschot V.A. vs Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring
Likeliest: K. Beerschot V.A. win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
K. Beerschot V.A.65%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
K. Beerschot V.A.
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 4 · v Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · at RSCA Futures U23 (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · at FCV Dender (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v KAA Gent Reserve U23 (H)4-0
- May 9 · v Lommel SK (H)1-3
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 6 · v RFC Liège (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at RFC Seraing (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Royal Excelsior Virton (A)0-3
- Apr 17 · v KSC Lokeren (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | K. Beerschot V.A. | Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.