Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sat, Oct 10 · 18:00 · K. Beerschot V.A. vs RFC Liège
Likeliest: K. Beerschot V.A. win · 66%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
K. Beerschot V.A.66%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%0
OursMarket
RFC Liège14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
K. Beerschot V.A.
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 27 · at Crossing Schaerbeek (A)5-3
- Sep 19 · at Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · at RSCA Futures U23 (A)1-0
RFC Liège
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 27 · v KVK Wellen (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at KAS Eupen (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Club NXT U23 (H)4-4
- Sep 6 · at Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring (A)0-0
- Aug 29 · v FCV Dender (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | K. Beerschot V.A. | RFC Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.