Belgian Cup (Belgium) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:00 · K. Beerschot V.A. vs RSC Anderlecht
Likeliest: RSC Anderlecht win · 48%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
K. Beerschot V.A.25%29%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
RSC Anderlecht48%45%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 39% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
K. Beerschot V.A.
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v RFC Liège (H)5-1
- Sep 27 · at Crossing Schaerbeek (A)5-3
- Sep 19 · at Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (H)4-2
RSC Anderlecht
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 15 · at GNK Dinamo Zagreb (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Cercle Brugge (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v SV Zulte Waregem (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at KV Mechelen (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | K. Beerschot V.A. | RSC Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.