Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · KA Akureyri vs ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar
Likeliest: KA Akureyri win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KA Akureyri57%58%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar21%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 74% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KA Akureyri
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Valur Reykjavík (A)1-4
- Oct 10 · at Stjarnan Garðabær (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Þór Akureyri (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · at FH Hafnarfjörður (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · v Breidablik Kópavogur (H)2-1
ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 16 · v FH Hafnarfjörður (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Þór Akureyri (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Valur Reykjavík (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Stjarnan Garðabær (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Stjarnan Garðabær (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | KA Akureyri | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.