Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · KAA Gent vs AGF
Likeliest: KAA Gent win · 59%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KAA Gent59%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
AGF17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KAA Gent
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at SV Zulte Waregem (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · v Standard Liège (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at KRC Genk (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Cercle Brugge (A)3-0
- Sep 3 · v Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)1-0
AGF
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 12 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at AC Horsens (A)2-2
- Sep 16 · at BK Skjold (A)6-1
- Sep 13 · at FC Nordsjælland (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Silkeborg IF (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | KAA Gent | AGF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.