Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Aug 30 · 11:30 · KAA Gent vs Club Brugge KV
Likeliest: Club Brugge KV win · 48%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KAA Gent29%23%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Club Brugge KV48%55%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 59% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 77% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 29% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KAA Gent
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 27 · at Hibernian (A)3-2
- Aug 20 · v Hibernian (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)2-1
- Aug 13 · v Göteborg (H)1-1
- Aug 9 · v KV Mechelen (H)2-0
Club Brugge KV
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 23 · v Cercle Brugge (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Oud-Heverlee Leuven (A)3-0
- Aug 7 · v KV Kortrijk (H)3-0
- May 24 · v Gent (H)5-0
- May 24 · v KAA Gent (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | KAA Gent | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 9-1-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.