Pro League (Belgium) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:45 · KAA Gent vs Standard Liège
Likeliest: KAA Gent win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KAA Gent50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Standard Liège22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KAA Gent
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 13 · at KRC Genk (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Cercle Brugge (A)3-0
- Sep 3 · v Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Club Brugge KV (H)2-1
- Aug 27 · at Hibernian (A)3-2
Standard Liège
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at KVC Westerlo (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · v Royal Antwerp FC (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Oud-Heverlee Leuven (A)2-1
- Aug 21 · v RAAL La Louvière (H)2-0
- Aug 16 · at KV Mechelen (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | KAA Gent | Standard Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-0 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.