Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 14:30 · Kairat vs Panathinaikos
Likeliest: Panathinaikos win · 55%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kairat18%23%−5
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Panathinaikos55%52%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 77% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 31% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kairat
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 15 · at Riga FC (A)1-1
- Aug 27 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)0-3
- Aug 20 · v RSC Anderlecht (H)0-3
- Aug 11 · v Levski Sofia (H)0-1
- Aug 4 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-1
Panathinaikos
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Asteras Aktor (H)5-1
- Oct 15 · v FK Borac Banja Luka (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Olympiacos FC (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at PS Kalamata (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · at AE Kifisia (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Kairat | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.